08 May
The landscape of the TV and media world has changed readily in the last few years, and with the rise of OTT media services, independent content creators and alternative viewing patterns, there is no reason to expect that the pace of change will slow, reports Deloitte in the referenced report. This can make planning for the future in this world-in-flux very difficult. This has prompted some experts from Deloitte to try and cast a cloud eye on the current TV and media market and try to predict what it will look like in 2030. Of course, there is inherent uncertainty in this approach, so they have contemplated 4 different scenarios to try and paint a picture of the media landscape soon.
Evolution
Our viewing patterns have already changed almost unrecognizably in the last decade. The market share of the big, traditional broadcasting companies has declined rapidly, and consumers have turned to streaming services like Netflix, Amazon Prime and others. This is very evident if we look at the current media consumption figures. For example, in the UK, 41% of the population have purchased an online subscription based streaming service. VOD (video on demand) and OTT (over the top) media services have forced larger broadcasting firms to adapt or fade.
There are notable differences internationally. For instance, in China the average consumer spends more time watching online streaming video than traditional live broadcasting, while in the more conservative German market for instance, the average person watches just 10 hours of streaming video per week, compared to 22 hours of traditional TV. Nevertheless, market shifts are expected to continue and accelerate over the next decade.
Factors to Consider
In this comprehensive report, Deloitte have considered dozens of emerging trends and patterns, and have sorted them in terms of potential impact and degree of uncertainty. Some of these trends, such as the fiction focus of TV, remote device control and corporate social responsibility have been around a long time, so their impact is more easily accounted for. Other trends have larger uncertainties surrounding how they will materialize in the future and how they will impact the TV and video markets. These include trends such as the ownership of sports rights, piracy and fan/follower relationships. There are a multitude of other factors as well. Deloitte have tried to incorporate all of these parameters into the future scenarios they have modeled, but they openly acknowledge the difficulty of this task.
Expert Predictions
From within this cloud of uncertainty and haze, some more certain expert predictions have emerged. These have been agreed upon by some of the most experienced people in the media and entertainment industry and are backed up by solid data and research. The first major prediction of this report is that digitization will change the face of the industry, from production through distribution and recommendations. Technology is bound to improve and become even more integrated into our daily lives, and video and TV will be no exception.
Also, to some extent, it is predicted that traditional TV and non-linear content will co-exist. This may seem optimistic, given then declining market share of traditional TV, but it is expected that the some of the advantages of linear TV will allow it to remain, especially for the broadcasting of live sports and other such events.
Advertising is expected to become more and more targeted. We have all noticed this trend in our social media feeds, but it is expected that this will transition to other media forms in the very near future. Advertising is expected to become more automated, more personalized, and will be based on larger stores of data. It is also predicted that, by comparison to the high standards and regulation in the media industry today, future market regulations will be laxer. These more moderate market regulations will benefit some content producers and media services more than others. Importantly, it is predicted that ‘net neutrality’ will continue to exist.
New revenues streams will be created in the coming years, but it is envisaged that direct advertising will remain the largest means of generating income for broadcasting services, although direct (e.g. subscription) revenue may also play a big part. It is considered that the global media industry may become partly consolidated soon, through take-overs, mergers and other market operations. this will not prevent the TV and video landscape from changing further.
Future Scenarios
Beyond these expert predictions, Deloitte has modeled 4 possible future scenarios.
In one such scenario, a few digital platforms gain the edge in the broadcasting war, and become a sort of global ‘supermarket’ for video content. This means the market would be truly global, offering the same services all over the world. These major players would most likely be involved in every stage of the process, from content creation to final streaming.
In another scenario, one could see the victory of the content creators. In this scenario, the creative minds behind the content we consume would rise to the top of the ”food chain”, allowing them to make demands of a variety of streaming and distribution services, including new platforms and traditional broadcasters. They may even bypass these channels and offer content directly to their customers.
In yet another possible future, the currently besieged national broadcaster may successfully revolutionize their offerings, become more digital friendly, and secure the ascendancy again. They take on all the benefits of digital streaming services but retain more national importance.
Finally, the market could remain much like it is now, a diverse mix of OTT streaming, IPTV and traditional broadcasting services, with strong distinction between content creation and distribution means, and both national and international partnerships abounding.
Conclusions
The current TV and video market are going through a period of vast change. In this report, some trends have been reliably identified as strong ones that will continue long into the future, while other patterns have huge uncertainties surrounding their ability to continue. Four separate scenarios for the future landscape of the TV and video world have been modeled, from the rise of the creators to the revenge of national broadcasters. You will just have to wait and see what the outcome is!
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